In
a recent report, UBS Investment Research pointed out that for the 1st
time the North American market
might see a decrease in cruise capacity for the year 2017.
“CCL announced it will be deploying 2 more ships, 2,124 berth Carnival
Miracle and 3,000 berth Carnival
Splendor, to sail year-round in China starting in spring '17 and
spring '18, respectively,” wrote
Robin Farley. "These re-deployments reduce our estimate of North American
capacity... with 2017 now going
up +0.8%, down from up +1.3% previously....”
While this is still a capacity increase, UBS doesn’t necessarily expect it to
last.
“We often know about ship withdrawals only a few months in advance, so the true
net increase is typically a
couple of % points lower than the gross increase, so we believe 2017 could end up being negative for North
American cruise capacity, which has never happened before.”
While that will mean fewer cabins for travel agents to sell, the positive side is that lower capacity should drive higher pricing and agent commission.
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