IATA Downgrades Forecast For Long-Term Air Travel Demand
has released an updated passenger growth forecast for the next 2 decades, and
the outlook is a little dimmer than it was previously.
airline organization is now projecting that pax numbers will reach 7 billion by
2034 with a 3.8% average annual growth in demand (2014 baseline year).
that is more than double the 3.3 billion who flew in 2014 and exactly twice as
many as the 3.5 billion expected in 2015, it’s also a downgrade from an earlier
prediction of 7.4 billion travellers and 4.1% annual growth.
says the revised result reflects negative developments in the global economy
that are expected to dampen demand for air transport, especially slower
economic growth projections for China.
five fastest-increasing markets in terms of additional pax per year over the
forecast period will be China (758 million new pax for a total of 1.196
billion), the U.S. (523 million new pax for a total of 1.156 billion), India
(275 million new pax for a total of 378 million), Indonesia (132 million new
pax for a total of 219 million) and Brazil (104 million new pax for a total of
interesting tidbits from the IATA forecast:
7 of the 10
fastest-growing markets in percentage terms will be in Africa. Each of these
markets is expected to grow by 7-8% each year on average over the next 20
years, doubling in size each decade. The top ten will be: Malawi, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Central African
Republic, Serbia, Tanzania, Uganda, Papua New Guinea, Ethiopia and Vietnam
In terms of
routes, Asian, South American and African destinations will see the fastest
growth, reflecting economic and demographic growth in those markets.
demand for air transport continues to grow. There is much work to be done to
prepare for the 7 billion passengers expected to take the skies in 2034,” said
Tony Tyler, IATA’s Director General & CEO.
the downside, Tyler said: “Economic and political events over the last year
have impacted some of the fundamentals for growth. As a result, we expect some
400 million fewer people to be traveling in 2034 than we did at this time last